Earlier this month, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced the formation of a new government after roughly two years of political gridlock in the small eastern Mediterranean country. During that time, Lebanon continued to experience one of the worst economic crises in modern times and a nearly 15-month war between the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel that ravaged most of the country’s south and east. Today, the country sits at a major crossroads: After decades of corruption via an embedded system of sectarian patronism and nepotism, can the Lebanese finally pull their nation from the brink?
Many experts have worked over the decades to build a functional modern state in Lebanon — often to be disappointed by the same issues that have plagued the country since before its founding. Indeed, regional interference and sectarianism within the diverse country have long divided Lebanon. This issue only hardened during the country’s civil war from 1975 until 1990. Resulting in upwards of 150,000 dead, that conflict forms a major baseline for many Lebanese political issues today.
Nearly 15 years of war naturally produced a scenario in which Lebanon’s Sunni, Shia, Christian, Druze, and other ethno-sectarian groups leaned further into their communities as a means of survival. Regional state sponsorship of specific groups — namely Israeli support for the Christian-dominated South Lebanon Army and Syria’s backing of political and militia entities like Amal. This scenario hardened negative views between groups in the country — an issue that persists in no small part because the makeup of those groups was ultimately baked into the political system to end the war.
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That modern political system formed out of the 1989 Taif Agreement. The deal aimed to address both the war and ethno-sectarian competition by introducing a new power-sharing formula into the Lebanese parliament. It also called for Israel and Syria to withdraw from Lebanon, although this only occurred in 2000 and 2005, respectively. In the meantime, major militias only slowly disarmed, with Hezbollah refusing to do so while significantly increasing its strength during and after the Israeli and Syrian occupations.
Multiple intermittent conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel led to the 2005 Cedar Revolution — a direct result of the group’s assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The killing proved a massive moment for the country. For the first time, a relatively widespread, inter-confessional peace movement demanding reform from the past swept the country.
Many have asked if the Cedar Revolution and more recent 2019 October Revolution, which started after the massive collapse of the Lebanese economy at the time, offer a glimpse into the country’s future and a potential roadmap for similarly divided countries around the globe. Indeed, a generational divide has formed in Lebanon, splitting an older generation that experienced the civil war and those born after. This latter group knows their country’s past and, in many ways, rejects it. The question is simple: What does this mean for Lebanon, and does it translate more broadly to other countries under similar conditions?
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In 2019, many young Lebanese of all faiths and backgrounds rose against the status quo and those enabling it — including Lebanon’s traditional parties and warlord leaders. In turn, these parties vilified the movement, sending partisan jackboots to attack protestors in some instances. While many independent opposition MPs found their way into the Lebanese parliament, very little ultimately changed because Lebanon’s corrupt elites refused reforms. Still, the country was experiencing a watershed moment that would sustain itself.
Indeed, the actions of Lebanon’s younger generations during the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah personify the importance of the October Revolution and the gradual shift in the country’s politics. As Lebanese fled the country’s south amid the Israeli onslaught that wiped out entire villages often not even associated with Hezbollah, central and northern communities faced the hard decision of taking in mostly Shia civilians with nowhere to go. While many older generations refused to help those of a group they viewed as the enemy, younger generations welcomed refugees into their homes in many instances — even understanding the risk of an Israeli strike targeting their family should any individuals have connections to Hezbollah.
For the first time, a relatively widespread, inter-confessional peace movement demanding reform from the past swept the country.
These acts of kindness showcase the persistence of the Cedar and October Revolutions. While not absolute, a generational rejection of the flawed, divisive system of ethno-sectarian patronism that has defined the country’s existence is growing. A younger generation of Lebanese have come to understand that their success and survival rests not in division but in a unified Lebanese state and identity.
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To be sure, the backers of the dominant system in the country do not yet reflect the younger generation’s views. Corrupt ethno-sectarian patronism still defines the state and majority, with militia leaders from the civil war in control of major parties and government ministries. The system is inherently designed to abhor reform because those who have led it since Taif reject any move that would loosen their grip on power. While many focus strictly on Hezbollah in this sense, the reality is that the sclerotic political elite as a whole is the problem.
Changing such a system won’t come quickly or easily. Private and public interests are so intertwined in Lebanon that even successive technocratic governments will not fully resolve the problem. Salam’s new government aims to do just that but would be wise to focus on core issues impacting the average Lebanese citizen first — namely banking and regulatory issues and poor service delivery that caused and perpetuated the 2019 economic collapse and subsequent pain thereafter.
Salam and recently elected President Joseph Aoun appear to understand these issues, having called for a focus on such items from his cabinet. Ultimately, focused pragmatism with the support of regional and international allies will achieve victories that draw more Lebanese into the reform camp if done correctly.
Lebanon can offer a lesson for countries around the world, showing that division and corruption have no place in a modern society that should view ethnic diversity as a strength. It starts with showing citizens that the government works for them. While easier said than done, Beirut is on the right path towards a brighter future today.
