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What Happens If the World Lets Ukraine Go

From abductions and torture to cultural erasure, Russia’s occupation tactics are no secret. As US policy shifts, voices from occupied Ukraine urge global leaders to remember who pays the price.

Words: Kris Parker
Pictures: Manuel Orbegozo
Date:

After nearly five years in captivity, Natasha Zelenina could not believe she was finally returning to Ukraine. Taken from her cell in a Snizhne prison colony without warning, her hands and eyes bound with tape and a trash bag placed over her head, she recalled being placed on a military transport plane, being flown around for hours, and threatened with batons before eventually landing in Rostov-on-Don. From there, Russian military trucks transported her and 107 other military and civilian women into southeastern Ukraine, where they were transferred to Ukrainian authorities and taken to Kyiv for rehabilitation in an October 2022 prisoner exchange.  

“I couldn’t even understand,” the 52-year-old social worker explained at her office in Kramatorsk in March of this year. “I’m not some kind of political activist, and so I asked the representative of the National Information Bureau — maybe there’s been a mistake? Because I’m just a regular person,” she explained, recalling her initial arrival in Kyiv and surprise that she had been included in the exchange. “She answered me, ‘there are no unnecessary people in Ukraine,’ and I’ve always remembered that.” 

The full-scale war is well into its fourth year and the prospects for peace remain as distant as ever. Russia has rejected recent attempts to implement a ceasefire and has launched a summer offensive as Russian President Putin continues to demand that Ukraine surrender the entirety of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts as a condition for halting Russia’s war. Whether or not residents of these areas actually want to be under Russian rule is of no concern. Putin and other nationalists have consistently denied Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent political and cultural entity, with Putin recently claiming, “the whole of Ukraine is ours.”

The Trump administration, while rapidly decreasing the scope and scale of support for Ukraine, has expressed a willingness to recognize Russian sovereignty over regions taken by force if it leads to a perceived resolution of the war. But for Zelenina and others who have directly experienced Russian occupation, any outcome that further entrenches Russian control over occupied regions would mean condemning those living there to a life of violence, repression, and fear. With the scale of Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities increasing, and fighting along the front continuing without pause, the experiences of Zelenina and others shed light on what the loss of these territories could mean for the people who call them home. 

In 2017, Zelenina was imprisoned by separatists of the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR by its Russian acronym) for transporting HIV medicine across what they consider to be the border on a visit to her mother in Donetsk city. Three years prior, separatists in eastern Ukraine, with support from the Russian military, declared independence from Kyiv and sparked a war that killed at least 14,000 people before Russia expanded the fighting in 2022. Zelenina spent two years and seven months in pre-trial detention and another two years and five months in a prison colony administered by the DNR after receiving an 11-year sentence for “smuggling.” 

“They gave me a document and said: ‘Sign this, that you crossed the border.’ I said: ‘I won’t sign it.’ I said: ‘I didn’t cross any border. I was simply traveling across my own land.’ And when I said that, they said: ‘Ah, okay. Now it’s clear,’” she explained. 

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Natasha inside the humanitarian organization 100% Life’s clinic in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday, March 26, 2025.

The DNR, along with the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), were not recognized by any UN member state until 2022, when Russia announced it would recognize them as independent states three days before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although originally from Donetsk, Zelenina never viewed the statelets as legitimate. Both “republics” have now been annexed by the Russian Federation.  

I didn’t cross any border. I was simply traveling across my own land. 

Natasha Zelenina

Shortly after the 2022 invasion was launched, Russian forces assumed control of the prison and the treatment of prisoners became much harsher, according to Zelenina. Prisoners were kept in isolation and restricted from communicating with family on the outside, while being subjected to various forms of emotional and psychological abuse, as well as threats of physical violence.  

“Every day the door would open, and we had to stand with our backs to the exit and shout: ‘Glory to Russia!’ three times at 6 am and 6 pm,” she explained. “They banned care packages. They banned visits. They banned phone calls. Right away, you know, when you can’t hear your loved ones…it would’ve been better to get beaten and still be allowed to call. We had girls break down emotionally. Real breakdowns.”

The repression of political dissent is a thoroughly documented pillar of the Putin regime and has become a defining feature of life in the occupied regions of Ukraine. An estimated three to five million Ukrainians currently live in the 19% of the country occupied by Russian forces. Though Russian propaganda frames the brutal invasion as “liberation,” affected regions are often left in utter destruction, with dozens of cities and hundreds of villages destroyed or heavily damaged by fighting, and tens of thousands of civilians killed and injured in the process. 

In autumn of 2022, Putin declared Russia had annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts after facilitating a sham referendum marked by intimidation and coercion within the occupied zones. Attacks on symbols of Ukrainian identity and sovereignty are central to the occupation, with the Russians imposing their own legal system and educational curricula, while using violence to counter resistance and instill fear. Instances of torture, sexual violence, killings, and forced disappearances have been documented, as well as cases of men being forcibly mobilized into Russian and proxy forces to fight against their home country. Russian banks are also offering subsidized home loans to encourage Russian citizens to move to the occupied territories. 

Additionally, roughly 20,000 Ukrainian children have reportedly been relocated to Russia and placed in re-education camps, leading the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue arrest warrants for both Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia’s Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights. A research lab at Yale University dedicated to investigating the abductions, which has since lost funding under Trump, has documented cases of children being placed in adoption after being separated from their Ukrainian parents, while re-education camps seek to eliminate any vestiges of an ethnic or cultural Ukrainian identity. 

The impunity with which these abuses occur has created a climate of fear for both those who remain, and their relatives who have fled or reside in non-occupied Ukraine. For those with relatives serving in Ukraine’s armed forces, the danger can be particularly severe. 

“Those with military experience, or people who had worked in the police or with Ukraine, are targeted by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). My brother was detained several times,” explained 52-year-old Viktor, a lawyer and former resident of now-occupied Melitopol, who requested to withhold his last name for safety.

His brother is a former soldier who served in the 2014-2022 war and was discharged after suffering two major concussions in Donbas. “They’d come, put a sack over his head, take him away, interrogate him, asking about others, about who else was involved. They’d search his home, our parents’ home, and they would come to my house since I was his brother, asking if we were passing information to the Ukrainian army.” Viktor spoke from the city of Zaporizhzhia, which he has made his home since fleeing the occupied region in 2022.

He said that some people involved in the earlier war have disappeared in the years following the invasion. He described searches by occupation authorities and pressure from the Russian Federal Security Service, who keep tabs on families supporting Ukraine.  “The pressure is intense. Not even pressure… It’s like under Soviet rule in 1937, during Stalin’s repressions,” he said. “If you disagree with the Russian authorities, if you do not accept the occupation, you will be accused of terrorism, and a case will be fabricated against you, which will end with years in prison. That’s how it works now.” 

After spending seven months under occupation, Viktor and his brother managed to leave in September 2022 through a negotiated humanitarian corridor. Volunteers later helped his brother move to Poland. His home in Melitopol, meanwhile, was seized by Russian occupation authorities. Communication with their parents and relatives who stayed in the occupied region are presumed to be surveilled. 

Zelenina also carefully navigates surveillance. “When I call my mom, I just ask, ‘Mom, how are you? How’s your health?’ And she replies, ‘Everything’s fine, my little daughter,’ and that’s it,” she said. “The Russians stop people in the streets and check their phones, their messages, and I don’t want my mother or other relatives to get into trouble.”   

Russian propaganda narratives often frame the invasion as part a liberation of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from a “Nazi” regime in Kyiv that subjects Russian speakers to various forms of repression. The politics of language are in fact much more nuanced, and many people actively resisting the invasion have also at one point spoken Russian as their primary language. Polls have indicated that a majority of residents do not want to live under Russian rule, with the war fueling strong resistance to Russia. A recent poll conducted by the Razumkov Center found that 76.2% of those polled in eastern Ukraine are against the annexation of the four oblasts that Russia has demanded. 

“They had their own Russian TV, broadcasting from the occupied territories of Donbas,” recalled Viktor. “They filmed videos claiming to have found ‘fascist literature.’ They loved planting Mein Kampf and other such books, and filmed the supposed “findings” of hidden weapons, even though the person had no weapons at all. They arrested people and staged show trials.” 

Despite majority resistance to the Russian invasion within Ukraine, the Kremlin’s revanchist talking points have occasionally found sympathetic ears abroad. Steve Witkoff, a Trump loyalist and now special envoy to the Middle East, has met with Russian leadership on numerous occasions since the administration took office in January. 

In March, Witkoff told far-right commentator Tucker Carlson that he believes the four oblasts Putin is demanding “overwhelmingly” want to “be under Russian rule.” The following month, the Trump administration released its framework for a peace proposal that offered US recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and “de-facto” recognition of the occupied territories. Though Ukraine agreed to adhere to a ceasefire back in March if Russia would as well, Putin has continued to refuse, choosing rather to intensify deadly attacks across the country and along the frontline.       

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Oleksandr at a medical distribution center in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.

“Well, everyone is waiting for a ceasefire, but this is our land and it should be ours, and everything should be returned to us; since the invasion, everything has been violated and an agreement with Russia would not be worth the paper it’s written on,” said 50 year-old Oleksandr Mykolayovych, a farmer and mechanic who fled occupation in Zaporizhzhia oblast. He now leads a small team of humanitarian volunteers based in Zaporizhzhia city, which remains free from Russian occupation, who support displaced refugees and residents remaining along the frontlines. “Someone who hasn’t gone through this won’t understand the tragedy, the sorrow of all the families who have left, the broken families, the children who have left, parents who stayed behind, parents who left, men who are fighting, children abroad, women who are fighting.”

The Trump administration has not allocated any new aid to Ukraine since taking office. It is a dramatic shift from the Biden administration, which committed $128 billion during its term, and signals a major reshaping in the bilateral relationship. Trump paused aid allocated under Biden and intelligence sharing briefly in March. He has since recently diverted air defense ammunition to Israel despite the number and strength of Russian drone and missile attacks increasing. Other countries have continued to provide aid, and Ukraine’s own defense industries have expanded, though for certain air defense systems the US remains key and must approve transfers from third countries. On July 1, the United States halted transfers of military aid allocated under the Biden administration entirely, a move eagerly welcomed by the Kremlin.      

“Ukraine is fighting for its freedom, for its sovereignty. We’re not asking for charity; we’re asking for justice”, explained Viktor. “We’re fighting for the right to live as free people in a free country, and we need the support of the world to make this happen.”The war shows little to no signs of ending in the near future, and Putin announced in March that Ukrainians living under occupation have until Sept. 10 to “regulate their legal status” or they will be forced to leave their homes. For those who have experience with Russian occupation and the loss it entails, how the war proceeds and eventually ends will dramatically determine their futures, with permanent displacement an ongoing threat.

Kris Parker

Kris Parker is a freelance journalist from the United States who reports from Ukraine. Manuel Orbegozo is a photojournalist and writer based in San Francisco who reports from the US, Latin America, and Ukraine.

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