The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual Yearbook for 2025, detailing global military expenditure, arms transfers, nuclear developments, and emerging security concerns. The report paints a picture of rising geopolitical tensions, increased military investments, and fading prospects for nuclear disarmament.
The report underscores a concerning reversal in nuclear arms trends. SIPRI confirmed that Russia, the US, and China are actively expanding their nuclear arsenals, a departure from decades of disarmament efforts. “Overall,” the report said, “the number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline, due to the USA and Russia dismantling retired war heads.” But the report warned the deployment of new warheads may soon outpace the dismantling of old.
Russia has suspended participation in key arms-control treaties, while China has ramped up its production of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The US maintains approximately 5,177 nuclear warheads, with a significant portion in high operational alert. The US and other nuclear-armed states are shifting toward expansion and modernization rather than disarmament, the report said.
Beyond nuclear stockpiles, worldwide military spending surpassed $2.7 trillion In 2024, marking the 10th consecutive year of growth. The United States, China, and Russia remain the top spenders, driving modernization efforts in conventional and strategic forces. The US continues funding advanced missile defense systems and next-generation military technology, while China expands its naval and space-based capabilities.
Europe has seen a sharp increase in defense budgets, largely in response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. NATO allies have rushed to bolster their military readiness, with countries like Germany and Poland allocating record sums for equipment purchases.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, continue heavy investments in air defense and cyber warfare capabilities. The report notes India and Pakistan also escalating military expenditures amid regional tensions.
*
Global arms transfers have remained high, with American, Russian, and Chinese defense contractors dominating the market. SIPRI’s analysis indicated a rise in transactions involving drones, cyber weapons, and autonomous military systems, marking a shift toward AI-driven warfare.
“Developments in 2024 again confirmed the high-profile role of missiles and armed uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs),” or drones, “in modern security and military strategies,” the report said. “Russia continued to use conventionally armed ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one-way attack UAVs in large numbers against Ukrainian forces, critical infrastructure and civilians in 2024.”
Private tech firms, particularly Silicon Valley startups, are increasingly involved in military-industrial projects. Companies specializing in AI-guided missile systems and autonomous surveillance tools have secured multi-billion-dollar contracts from Western defense ministries.
The report warned that while these innovations enhance battlefield effectiveness, the lack of regulatory oversight on AI weapons systems could pose unforeseen risks.
Beyond conventional warfare, SIPRI highlightedSS cyber threats, AI-driven combat, and space militarization as growing concerns. Cyber operations targeting military infrastructure are becoming more frequent, with state-backed actors refining offensive capabilities.
“The trend has been particularly pronounced in high-technology sectors, including those covering uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare and cyber capabilities powered by artificial intelligence. This reflects the Western arms industry’s shift towards advanced technologies in response to the requirements of modern warfare and military priorities,” the report said.
The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 warned that global security is at a crossroads, with military spending, nuclear expansion, and emerging warfare technologies shifting the balance of power. While diplomatic efforts persist, the report suggests the world is entering an era of strategic competition rather than cooperation.
