When mobs of Donald Trump’s supporters raided the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was their attempt to roll back the results of a democratic election part of a pattern that spanned across global borders?
Well, yes, according to a new paper Ka Ming Chan has written for the British Journal of Political Science. But Chan also asked whether a far-right insurrection in one country might have a detrimental impact on a far-right party’s support base in another.
The paper drew a comparison between the US Capitol riot and the 2023 Brazilian Congress attack, when backers of Jair Bolsonaro attacked federal buildings in Brasília. In both cases, supporters of a recently defeated, far-right president tried to “deny the legitimacy of the electoral game,” Chan wrote, and attempted “to perpetuate the power of their losing president.”
Then, the author examined the cases of Germany and the Netherlands, asking whether the US insurrection could “reduce” support for far-right parties in both European nations.
When a far-right insurrection takes place elsewhere in the world, Chan argued, “it becomes difficult for domestic citizens to ignore the threats to democracy posed by the far-right parties.” In some cases, coup attempts abroad can even lead to a “transnational learning process.”
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The US Capitol riot snatched headlines in newspapers and primetime coverage on television news across the globe. That was, according to Chan, because the insurrection “marked a watershed of democratic backsliding not simply in the US, but also worldwide.”
In the Netherlands, Chan examined support for the ultra-right Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom and the Forum for Democracy, another far-right party that came into existence in 2015. Comparing data from before and after Jan. 6, 2021, Chan found that support for the Dutch far-right parties slumped by the equivalent of around six to seven parliamentary seats.
It becomes difficult for domestic citizens to ignore the threats to democracy posed by the far-right parties.
In Germany, Chan considered several parties: the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Die Rechte (The Right), the National Democratic Party (now named Homeland), and the Republicans (REP). Relying on similar survey data, Chan calculated that overall support for these parties after the Jan. 6 events decreased by some five parliamentary seats.
But why does a riot in the US lead to spillover in Western Europe? In part, according to Chan, that is “due to shaming and a change in voting calculus.”
Still, the author conceded that the study had a handful of limitations. For one, future researchers could examine whether the Brazil coup attempt had similar transnational impacts. Secondly, a future study could dig into whether insurrections like the Jan. 6 uprising wreak similar consequences in non-Western countries.
Chan didn’t argue that the drop in support for far-right parties would be long-lasting, and in several countries around the world, the author pointed out, the far right has made monumental gains in the years since the US Capitol riot.
