A new series of analyses from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) commemorates four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The analyses show how the war has reshaped global security, strained both countries’ economies, and destabilized food systems far beyond Eastern Europe.
While Russia initially weathered Western sanctions more effectively than expected, CSIS concludes that the country’s long‑term trajectory is deteriorating. As one report puts it, “Russia’s economy is increasingly showing signs of strain, and long-term productivity looks bleak.” The Kremlin has relied heavily on domestic borrowing and tax increases to finance the war, while devoting roughly half its federal budget to the armed forces, internal security, the military‑industrial complex, and debt servicing. Despite high industrial output driven by wartime demand, the report notes that the war has produced “few lasting assets or productivity gains,” leaving Russia further behind advanced economies in technology and innovation.
On the battlefield, Russia’s incremental advances underscore the grinding nature of the conflict. According to CSIS, Russian forces have been on the offensive in most sectors since early 2024 but have moved at historically slow rates. In one of the war’s most scrutinized campaigns, Russian troops advanced less than 50 kilometers (about 31 miles) from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk over nearly two years — an average of about 70 meters per day. “Russian forces moved forward on the battlefield at historically slow rates of advance,” the report explains.
These marginal gains come at staggering human cost: CSIS estimates that Russia has suffered more than a million total battlefield casualties, while Ukraine’s losses have also reached several hundred thousand. Combined casualties could approach two million by spring 2026, making the conflict one of the deadliest in Europe since World War II.
Meanwhile, the war’s economic and humanitarian consequences have extended far beyond the front lines. Ukraine’s agricultural sector — long a cornerstone of global grain markets — has been devastated by occupation, landmines, destroyed irrigation systems, and repeated strikes on grain infrastructure. The cumulative impact of these disruptions, according to CSIS, has been widely misunderstood. According to the analysis, “Ukraine’s 2025 exports of corn, barley, wheat, and meslin … were 35% lower than 2020, the last year [when] harvest was unaffected by Russia’s full-scale invasion.”
The report explains that temporary spikes in exports during 2023 and 2024 were misinterpreted by some policymakers as signs of recovery, when in fact they reflect delayed shipments caused by Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports. Numerous structural constraints — including mined farmland, labor shortages, damaged irrigation networks, and ongoing attacks on port facilities — have continued to suppress production and exports.
The destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir in 2023 eliminated Ukraine’s largest irrigation system, leaving hundreds of thousands of hectares without water and crippling agricultural output in key regions. NASA Harvest estimates that roughly 40% of Ukraine’s agricultural production comes from land directly affected by the invasion. At the same time, Russian occupation authorities have seized and exported millions of tons of Ukrainian grain, distorting markets and financing military operations. Even as Ukraine expands alternative export routes through the European Union, political tensions over grain inflows have led to renewed trade restrictions in 2025, further complicating the country’s economic recovery.
Russia’s agricultural sector, by contrast, initially benefited from favorable weather and unimpeded access to its ports. Wheat exports reached record highs, giving Moscow significant leverage over global grain markets. But CSIS warns that Russia’s long‑term agricultural outlook is also vulnerable. Labor shortages — exacerbated by mobilization and demographic decline — are reducing the agricultural workforce by an estimated 150,000 people per year. Weather volatility and sanctions‑related financial constraints have added further uncertainty. Fertilizer exports, another major revenue source, have fluctuated sharply, though potash shipments rebounded in 2025.
Globally, the war has intensified food insecurity. The initial shock of Russia’s invasion pushed food prices to historic highs in 2022, compounding the lingering effects of the Covid‑19 pandemic. Although prices have moderated since then, CSIS estimates that 673 million people remain undernourished and more than 300 million face acute food insecurity — double the number in 2019. The analysts warn that Ukraine’s diminished agricultural capacity has weakened the world’s ability to absorb future supply shocks, underscoring the need for more resilient global food systems.
Russia’s GDP growth has slowed under the weight of sanctions, wartime spending, and limited access to foreign capital. The country receives little foreign investment and cannot borrow on international markets, forcing the Kremlin to rely on domestic financing. Despite high military spending, Russia’s nominal GDP remains comparable to mid‑sized economies such as Canada or Italy, far below the United States, China, Germany, or Japan. Adjusted for purchasing power parity, Russia’s economy is five and a half times smaller than that of the United States and four times smaller than China’s.
Ukraine faces immense reconstruction needs. The World Bank estimates that rebuilding the country’s housing, energy systems, transportation networks, and industrial base would require nearly $600 billion over the next decade — three times Ukraine’s 2024 GDP. Demining remains a prerequisite for agricultural recovery, but a full assessment of contamination remains impossible until the war ends. Energy infrastructure, repeatedly targeted by Russian strikes, requires a shift toward decentralized, Western‑integrated systems to reduce vulnerability.
International support patterns have also shifted. US assistance, which peaked in 2022 and 2023, largely halted in early 2025, leaving Europe as Ukraine’s primary long‑term security backer. European states have committed nearly $100 billion in aid and increasingly rely on a US–NATO mechanism that allows them to purchase American weapons for Ukraine. Air defense remains Ukraine’s most urgent military requirement.
Across both reports, CSIS concludes that the war has hardened into a prolonged struggle with global repercussions: a battered but resilient Ukraine, a militarized and economically strained Russia, and a world still grappling with the cascading effects on food security, energy systems, and geopolitical stability.
