On a frigid night in December 2023, residents of Tarn Taran, a village in the northern Indian state of Punjab, heard an eerie buzzing sound overhead. Within minutes, India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and local police intercepted a Chinese-made drone a few meters from the boundary with Pakistan. It was allegedly carrying a payload of arms and narcotics.
This was no isolated incident. The border areas between India, Pakistan, and China have become a high-tech battleground in recent years. Drones, many equipped with artificial intelligence, have increasingly appeared above, hovering in skies at increased frequencies. Sartaj Singh, a local from Tarn Taran, said he and other villagers have seen “a lot of drone movement on the borders,” adding that they hear reports of Indian security forces capturing drones “almost every other day.”
According to BSF, drone sightings along the India-Pakistan border have surged from 77 in 2020 to 311 in 2022, totaling 492 over three years. In 2023, the number of drones shot down and seized skyrocketed to 119, a fivefold increase from the previous year. Punjab, with its vast border stretches, has been the most vulnerable, recording 369 incidents.
Both countries accuse each other of spying through surveillance drones. India claims Pakistan is using drones made by India’s regional arch rival China. The Chinese military on the other hand has also been deploying drones over buffer zones in eastern Ladakh to monitor the movements and patrolling patterns of Indian soldiers within India-claimed territory.
These developments have raised concerns about accidental escalations, violations of territorial sovereignty, and the growing risk that unmanned incursions could trigger conflicts in this critical South Asian belt.
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Experts say China has a significant technological edge in the current scenario. The country has cemented its position as the world’s second military superpower, following the United States, with significant advancements in drone technology. “China is not just manufacturing drones but has built an entire ecosystem around them, including software, sensors, and AI-powered coordination,” said Dr. Tallha Abdulrazaq, a London-based security and defense consultant.
China’s investments have led to drones capable of autonomous flight, target recognition, and swarm coordination. These capabilities allow for precision strikes and enhanced surveillance with minimal human intervention. Recent reports suggest that China has been testing AI-powered drone swarms near the disputed Ladakh region, while also supplying Pakistan with lethal unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), giving Islamabad an advantage in cross-border skirmishes.
“Pakistan relies primarily on Chinese drones, as their strategic goals align in this region,” explained Tilak Jha, a South Asia expert and associate professor at India’s Bennett University. “Chinese drones are not just used for military operations; they are also instrumental in smuggling drugs and weapons across borders without risking human lives.”
India, aware of the growing drone threat from both Pakistan and China, has significantly ramped up its drone capabilities. The country has invested in homegrown drone technology while also acquiring high-end UAVs from global players. “India has started taking note of this challenge only recently,” Jha pointed out. “Until 2021, there was no well-defined drone policy. Now, the government has banned drone imports from China and is focusing on indigenous manufacturing.”
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One of India’s key developments is Indrajaal, an AI-powered anti-drone system designed to neutralize enemy UAVs before they can strike. However, experts believe that despite these advancements, India lags behind China by at least three to five years in terms of drone production and AI integration. “China is also ahead of India by three decades in overall military preparation,” said Indian veteran Lt Col (Retd) J.S. Sodhi, who is also a defense and strategic affairs analyst.
Observers also say artificial intelligence has emerged as a crucial element in this drone warfare, as it has reduced response times and enhanced target precision. AI-powered drones can now analyze vast amounts of battlefield data in real time, navigate complex terrains autonomously, and even make engagement decisions within seconds.
Still, AI-driven military systems introduce new risks. “Who controls the trigger when drones operate autonomously?” asks Jha. “A minor miscalculation could escalate into a full-blown conflict between nuclear-armed nations.”
Even though the US and China are currently the two dominant players in AI-driven drone technology, India has begun attempting to bridge the gap by investing in local drone development and encouraging AI-driven defense startups.
“India must focus on developing its own AI-powered drones instead of relying on imports,” explained Sodhi. “We also need to invest in STEM education to ensure a strong research and development foundation.”
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The excessive use of these drones has transformed border security dynamics in the region, making traditional surveillance methods obsolete. Along the India-China border, also known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), high-altitude drones have been providing persistent surveillance, helping China monitor Indian troop movements. Because this terrain “makes conventional surveillance difficult,” Abdulrazaq explained, using drones offers “China a low-risk way to enhance [its] situation awareness and probe Indian defenses.”
Similar sightings of Chinese-made attack drones in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir have raised alarms in New Delhi. India’s security forces now face the possibility of cross-border strikes carried out autonomously by AI-powered drones. “This not only lowers the threshold for conflict escalation but also creates a volatile and unpredictable security environment,” Abdulrazaq added.
Meanwhile, the growing use of AI drones is sharpening concerns about cybersecurity. According to Sodhi, a recent hacking operation that targeted two Indian drones near the border led “the government to cancel several drone orders containing Chinese components.” In his telling, incidents like this highlight India’s need to produce its own drones. “If we rely on foreign technology, we risk our drones [becoming] useless in times of war.”
At the same time, China has been positioning itself as a key player in the UAV market, exporting drones to nations well beyond South Asia: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Serbia, to name a few.
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On the other side of the world, Washington is watching closely as Chinese drone technology finds new markets. “The US still leads in high-end drone technology, but China has closed the gap, particularly in medium-altitude, long-endurance drones and commercial UAVs,” Abdulrazaq pointed out. Still, he added, “China’s willingness to export its technology at competitive prices makes it a formidable player in the global drone landscape.”
Back in India, dependence on drone imports — the US-made, high-end MQ-9B UAVs, for instance — has enhanced its surveillance and strike capabilities, but experts believe the South Asian country will only find security through local production. “Until we achieve self-reliance in drone and AI technology,” Sodhi argued, “we will always be vulnerable to foreign supply chain disruptions.”
AI-powered drones are quickly becoming a central feature of modern warfare, a fact that is rewriting the rules of engagement. In Jha’s telling, the lack of regulations on autonomous weapons is raising serious ethical and strategic concerns. Without “clear international frameworks,” Jha said, there comes the risk of “entering an era where machines decide friend or foe, with humans merely observing.”
