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To Squash Dissent, Pakistan Adopts China’s ‘Great Firewall’

Facing unrest and economic collapse, Pakistan has turned to imposing internet disruptions and blackouts.

Words: Marcus Andreopoulos
Pictures: Usama Yasin
Date:

Throughout the past year, turmoil has plagued relations between China and Pakistan. Deadly terror attacks — the highest number in a decade, according to one count — have hobbled efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation. Many have specifically targeted Chinese construction projects and workers. 

The surge in attacks has strained ties between Beijing and Islamabad, increasing the prospect that Pakistan may lose its most important benefactor during a period of deep political and economic instability. Amid this chaos, Pakistan has adopted a new strategy to placate China, drawing from its neighbor’s extensive arsenal of online surveillance tools. By implementing elements of China’s “Great Firewall,” Islamabad aims to regain control over its population, suppress political dissent, and improve security conditions with the hopes of preventing Beijing from withdrawing its investments. But these measures come at a high cost — and leave Pakistan edging further down the path of authoritarianism.

Internet disruptions, slowdowns, and shutdowns were a common feature of the past year in Pakistan. Leading up to the much-anticipated — and subsequently, much-disputed — election in February, authorities banned social media apps, including X, under the pretext of national security concerns. This was a transparently political maneuver aimed at silencing those questioning the legitimacy of the vote. 

Despite the disqualification and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party performed remarkably well, thanks in large part to an effective online campaign. To suppress allegations of election rigging and prevent the further mobilization of Khan’s supporters, the Pakistani government, bolstered by the military, asserted its authority by tightening control over the online space.

Not New

This approach is not new. One Pakistani government after another has turned to imposing internet blackouts as a means of suppressing dissent in the past. Still, what followed the Feb. 8 vote constitutes a major cause for concern. In the months since, millions of Pakistanis have experienced persistent internet slowdowns and blackouts, disrupting access to messaging apps and email services. 

According to the Pakistan Software House Association’s estimates, these disruptions have cost the economy $300 million in losses. That association has also accused the government of attempting to implement a new national firewall. This accusation was swiftly, but unconvincingly, denied by Shaza Fatima Khawaja, the Minister for Information, Technology, and Telecommunications.

Yet, evidence now suggests the allegations are true. Insiders from internet service providers and Pakistan’s security services have subsequently revealed that trials of a new firewall did take place and, crucially, were responsible for last year’s connectivity issues.

This new firewall will afford the Pakistani government unprecedented powers. In the past, Pakistan’s internet users circumvented website bans using virtual private networks (VPNs), allowing them to access sites like X from an IP address outside of the country. The new firewall, however, has the capability to block VPNs, making it far easier for the government — with the backing of the country’s  powerful military and security establishment — to monitor internet usage. This raises serious questions about privacy and increases the likelihood of further interference in the country’s democratic processes. 

Populism Runs into the Firewall

A major motivation behind the decision to trial this firewall is its potential to curb the growth of Khan’s PTI party. Having mastered new technologies himself, Khan has used artificial intelligence to continue to reach supporters even from behind bars, posing a significant threat to the government. 

In 2023, the government used temporary internet blackouts to prevent serious backlash and the mobilization of PTI supporters following Khan’s arrest. Through URL blocking and domain name system (DNS) filtering, this new firewall could subject Khan to a more permanent exclusion from Pakistan’s online space.

A major motivation behind the decision to trial this firewall is its potential to curb the growth of Khan’s PTI party.

Khan’s populism has proven a formidable challenge to the military’s previously unfaltering grip over electoral politics in Pakistan — a new firewall will see the pendulum swing firmly back towards the generals.  

Islamabad’s decision to introduce the new firefall wasn’t only about suppressing Khan, though — it also took into consideration the deteriorating security landscape. 

Militant Groups 

Militant groups in Pakistan have exploited the internet to sustain pressure on the state, disseminating propaganda, recruiting fighters, and fundraising through the dark web. The two foremost security challenges facing Pakistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), are no exception, and have both demonstrated a capable and effective use of the internet in achieving their objectives. 

Both the TTP and the BLA have also made a point of methodically targeting Chinese interests in the country. As previous efforts to curb militancy — many of which China strongly encouraged — have largely failed, a tighter grip on the online space could be the first step in a broader push to weaken these groups and ensure that crucial Chinese investment continues. It seems unlikely that a country on the brink of  economic collapse would risk further economic losses without encouragement from its increasingly overbearing “all-weather” ally. 

Lack of Transparency

It is not yet clear which Chinese company is behind the development of this new technology. That might be because Beijing is reluctant to disclose its involvement. Either way, it is likely to prove far more restrictive than other firms’ past efforts in Pakistan. 

In the past, Pakistan acquired a “web monitoring system” from the Canadian software developer Sandvine, which enabled URL filtering and deep packet inspection of internet traffic. Pakistan’s decision to trial a new firewall hints that the government is seeking  an even greater level of online control. This is where Chinese expertise is most valuable. 

The lack of transparency regarding the companies involved fuels speculation that the Chinese state itself may be part of this project. After all, China has demonstrated its technological capability to enforce an extraordinary level of control, monitoring, and restriction over the online activities of a population nearly six times larger than Pakistan’s.

Commercial Incentives

There are also commercial benefits for China should Pakistan follow its lead and isolate itself from the global online community. In an effort to exert total control over online activity and communications, Pakistan may adopt more extreme policies from China’s ‘Great Firewall,’ potentially blocking social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and X, as well as restricting access to search engines such as Google. 

In turn, Pakistan could seek alternatives from China, leading to the widespread use of platforms like WeChat, Weibo, and Xiaohongshu (also known as RedNote) among the Pakistani population. This shift would provide China with an economic and soft power boost, accompanying the security benefits of tighter online control. Even if Pakistan does not completely ban Western applications, Chinese involvement in the implementation of this new firewall makes it likely that censorship will extend to criticisms of China. This is significant because China’s treatment of its Muslim Uyghur minority in Xinjiang could provide further justification for Islamist groups to target Chinese interests. 

This is not the first time in recent months that Pakistan has, so to speak, adopted policies with “Chinese characteristics.” In November, the Pakistani government extended the military chief’s term from three to five years, further consolidating power in the country’s most influential position. This move echoes Xi Jinping’s decision to bypass term limits and retirement age norms for himself and his allies at the 20th Party Congress.

While it is unclear whether China influenced this decision, a strengthened military establishment represents a step towards addressing Chinese security concerns in the country. Now with increased internet surveillance, the power of the Pakistani state continues to grow, to the benefit of China, but at the expense of online freedom for ordinary people.

Marcus Andreopoulos

Marcus Andreopoulos is a Senior Research Fellow at the international policy assessment group, the Asia-Pacific Foundation, and a Subject Matter Expert with the Global Threats Advisory Group at NATO’s Defence Education Enhancement Programme. Marcus is currently pursuing a PhD in international history at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

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