A surge of regional violence, shifting great‑power alignments, and growing doubts about Washington’s reliability have pushed Qatar and Saudi Arabia into the most consequential reassessment of their security strategies in decades, according to a new report from The Quincy Institute.
The report argues that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia — historically the two largest buyers of US defense technology — are recalibrating their dependence on the United States after a year in which American and Israeli actions have repeatedly destabilized the Gulf. The brief opens with a stark reminder of how dramatically regional perceptions have shifted: a 2026 Arab Opinion Index survey found that 77% “of respondents said US policies threaten regional security and stability” and 84% felt that Israeli policies endanger the region.
Qatar’s position is the most paradoxical. After Israel bombed a residential building in Doha on Sept. 9, 2025 — killing six people and marking the first Israeli strike on a GCC member — Qatar publicly reaffirmed its partnership with Washington even as officials privately questioned why the United States failed to stop the attack. Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al‑Thani condemned the strike as “a flagrant violation of sovereignty and security, and a clear violation of the rules and principles of international law.”
The attack was especially shocking because Qatar has long served as a mediator between Israel and Hamas at Washington’s request. Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al‑Thani underscored the unprecedented nature of the strike, telling the Doha Forum that “the concept of mediation is that it is a safe place for the two parties … To have the mediator hit by one of the parties is unprecedented.”
Despite its outrage, Doha avoided a public rupture with Trump, who responded by issuing an executive order pledging that “an attack on Qatar will be treated as an attack on the US.” Qatari officials welcomed the gesture but noted privately that an executive order lacks the permanence of a treaty. The episode reinforced Qatar’s long‑running strategy: maintain visible loyalty to Washington while quietly expanding ties with Turkey, the UK, France, and other partners.
Saudi Arabia’s reassessment is more overt. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 hinges on stability, foreign investment, and avoiding regional war — conditions gravely threatened by Trump’s threats to strike Iran and by Israel’s widening military campaign. Riyadh has grown increasingly skeptical of US reliability since Washington failed to respond forcefully to Iran’s 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities.
Saudi analysts interviewed for the report describe deep frustration with US escalation. Researcher Aziz al‑Ghashian warns that Trump’s Iran policy was a short‑term measure where the Saudis inherit long‑term ramifications: “It’s actually counterproductive, now the Iranians are even more paranoid.”
Riyadh has responded by diversifying: repairing ties with Iran and Turkey, signing a defense pact with Pakistan, purchasing South Korean air‑defense systems, and exploring Chinese and Sino‑Pakistani weapons platforms. At the same time, Saudi leaders insist that normalization with Israel remains impossible without a Palestinian state — an immovable condition that has strained relations with Washington.
The report argues that neither Qatar nor Saudi Arabia sees a viable replacement for the US security umbrella, but both are preparing for a future in which Washington is less dependable. Efforts to build a collective GCC defense architecture have repeatedly stalled due to internal rivalries, from the 2017 Saudi‑UAE blockade of Qatar to ongoing Saudi‑Emirati competition in Yemen and Sudan.
Even as several GCC states quietly expanded security coordination with Israel and the US during the Gaza war, the cooperation failed to prevent Israel’s strike on Doha — reinforcing doubts about the system’s purpose and reliability. By early 2026, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE had all signaled that they would not allow the US to use their airspace for a strike on Iran.
The report concludes that Gulf states are looking to greater autonomy and more partners. Some officials now openly argue that the Gulf must stop outsourcing its security and instead build an inclusive regional architecture involving Turkey, Iran, and — contingent on Palestinian statehood — Israel.
Yet the path forward remains uncertain. The US still provides unmatched military capabilities, and no alternative power offers comparable guarantees. For now, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are pursuing parallel strategies: maintaining strong ties with Washington while expanding partnerships that reduce their vulnerability to American unpredictability.
