Do we fight wars because we have the technology to do so, or do we create technology because we have wars to fight? The complex relationship between technology and warfare has been a puzzle for thinkers, generals, and leaders for centuries. Today, as artificial intelligence (AI) dominates headlines and policy discussions, another technological revolution is quietly unfolding with even greater potential to reshape the global security landscape. Quantum is a field advancing faster than we can track it but slow enough that we have a narrow window of opportunity to contemplate its implications on global security and its potential to enable or disable tomorrow’s wars.
Quantum may sound like science fiction — especially when scientists talk about quantum teleportation —but it is real and relevant. In the simplest terms, the idea of quantum is to understand the smallest units of a phenomenon and the distinct states of the smallest particles that make up physical matter. Today’s advances in quantum technologies owe much to the scientific work of the early 20th century, beginning with German scientist Max Planck’s studies into the particles that make up energy: quanta. Over time, research and interest in quantum mechanics led to the birth of quantum information science (QIS), blending physics, computer science, and engineering to harness the properties of quantum particles. The essence of QIS is to explore how fundamental laws of nature can help us discover and develop new, more efficient and faster ways of obtaining, transmitting, and processing information.
Quantum Computing: The Next “Big Thing”
Classical computers process information in bits — ones and zeros. The now-famous analogy experts use to illustrate how regular computers — which power virtually all aspects of digital capabilities from social media to AI applications — function is like flipping a coin and calling heads or tails. Quantum computers, in stark contrast, use qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, an idea that can be hard to fathom. In the example of the coin, in quantum terms we would say that the same coin could land heads, tails, or both at once because quantum moves beyond the binary principle at the heart of classical computing. This ability to process multiple outcomes simultaneously allows quantum computers to solve problems that would take today’s fastest supercomputers millions of years to crack.
To illustrate how transformative a functional quantum computer could be for virtually every aspect of life, it is enough to imagine a computer powerful enough to instantly decrypt any encryption system, optimize supply chains with billions of variables, or simulate new materials for advanced military hardware. For example, Google’s Sycamore quantum computer performed a calculation in 200 seconds that would have taken the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years. Given how central computing is to our life today, such a breakthrough could be the 21st-century version of humanity crossing the Rubicon.
The only problem is that building functional, scalable quantum computers remains a challenge due to technical limitations, mainly the properties of qubits. Qubits are notoriously fragile and require near-absolute-zero temperatures to operate. Governments and tech companies around the world are investing billions of dollars into quantum computing research and development. According to Edward Parker, a physical scientist at RAND, “quantum computers may offer higher impact in the long term, but they are currently further away from utility, and it’s harder to predict exactly what they will be useful for.”
Despite the challenges, many countries are racing to develop quantum computers. China, for instance, has claimed $15 billion in public investments in quantum initiatives, while the United States has devoted more and more R&D resources to quantum. The National Quantum Initiative Act from 2018 and White House executive actions signal a growing recognition of just how important quantum is to America’s technological leadership. Under President Donald Trump, who considers America’s technological dominance a key national and economic security issue, the federal government will likely continue investments in the sector to keep pace and try to surpass China.
The Quantum Era Has Already Begun
Cierra Choucaier, who covers the quantum industry and research developments for the Quantum Insider, thinks functional and practical quantum computing is still quite some time away, but she thinks that there are existing quantum technologies and actionable research that could be impactful today. “When we think about quantum technology, the focus often narrows to quantum computing, overlooking the immediate relevance of quantum sensing and quantum networks, which demand just as much attention.”
China has already demonstrated the potential for quantum communications by launching the world’s first quantum satellite, Micius, into space in 2016. In 2017, Micius enabled a video call between Beijing and Vienna that scientists claimed was “unhackable.” The possibility of transmitting data — including multimedia, like a video call — that is impossible for an adversary to intercept as any attempt would immediately be detected, is extremely valuable. It is no wonder that states are racing to capitalize on such a strategic advantage in communication networks.
Quantum sensing, however, holds the most immediate promise for applications in defense. Applying the quantum properties in existing sensors can provide significant tactical advantages to armed forces, especially in the sea. Parker believes that quantum sensing is the category of quantum applications “closest to deployment.” According to the latest report from the Congressional Research Service, quantum sensing can “provide alternative positioning, navigation, and timing options that could in theory allow militaries to continue to operate at full performance in GPS-degraded or GPS-denied environments.” Such a capability would overcome a major obstacle, as GPS jamming by countries like Russia has become widespread and threatens freedom of action in battle.
Quantum in Defense: Enhancing Today’s Arsenals
Quantum computers “breaking reality” may still be a far-away scenario, and quantum sensors overcoming GPS jamming may not be the biggest game changer in battle, but combined, quantum computing, sensing, and communications are a powerful triad for defense and will profoundly impact the future landscape of global security. Quantum sensors could detect stealth aircraft or submarines that evade conventional radar. Quantum communications could secure command-and-control systems against cyberattacks. Quantum computing could optimize logistics and supply chains for military deployments, saving time and resources.
Quantum computing, sensing, and communications are a powerful triad for defense and will profoundly impact the future landscape of global security.
And for all the impressive applications for and in defense, quantum technologies will not reinvent or transform warfare as we know it. Instead, they will act as force multipliers, amplifying existing capabilities. These tools will sharpen the edge of conventional military assets but won’t fundamentally change the rules of the game. As with other technologies — like the radio more than a century ago and generative AI today — they will be bent, changed with shifting military priorities and doctrines, and shaped into something that is hard to estimate today given how nascent the field is.
And despite all the uncertainty surrounding the central question of quantum — what trajectory quantum technologies will take and to what extent the state can influence the direction of scientific research — there are three clear areas where the security risks are the highest when it comes to quantum: cybersecurity, a quantum-AI nexus, and an unrestrained geopolitical standoff over national advantage in quantum.
(In)security in the Quantum Era
First, quantum computing poses a unique challenge to cybersecurity because today’s encryption methods rely on mathematical problems that classical computers could solve only in millions of years. Quantum computers, however, would be able to easily crack encryption, potentially destroying the entire basis upon which modern cybersecurity systems are based. Duncan Jones, a cybersecurity expert overseeing the development of a platform generating quantum-derived cryptographic keys at Quantinuum, believes that cybersecurity should be the main security concern when it comes to quantum. “The threat to cybersecurity from quantum computing is the most clear and present danger, and it is only a matter of time before quantum computers are powerful enough to bring the threat to life,” he told me.
The race to develop quantum-resistant encryption has already begun. In the United States, the National Institute of Standards and Technology within the Department of Commerce has already begun rolling out new post-quantum cryptography standards to help secure electronic information against cyberattacks by quantum computers.
The stakes are high. Nations that fail to secure their networks against quantum threats risk exposing everything from critical infrastructure to military secrets, and cyber warfare is already part of the intense geopolitical competition unfolding in front of our eyes.
The second most significant security risk will come from the combination of quantum and AI. Today’s impressive AI advancements, from ChatGPT to increasingly autonomous robots, are possible because of the immense computing power, itself possible thanks to advances in semiconductor technology and computer hardware. Quantum computing, once fully functional, would immediately supercharge AI, enabling surveillance systems, more capable autonomous weapons, and advanced decision-making algorithms. Imagine an AI-powered quantum computer analyzing global satellite data in real time to predict troop movements or economic disruptions. The possibilities are as exciting as they are terrifying.
Against the backdrop of increased fragmentation of the international institutions upholding the world order and an intense geopolitical standoff between the world’s major players, especially the United States and China, the two risks discussed above become even more dangerous. Without international governance, this quantum-AI nexus and quantum’s potential impact on cybersecurity will destabilize the already tense geopolitical landscape.
The United States and China are already locked in a technological arms race, with both nations seeking to achieve national advantage in quantum technologies as a strategic priority. In a recent Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) report I co-authored, my colleague and I found that while the US private sector — with giants like IBM and Google — leads in quantum computing, China has made impressive strides in quantum communications and sensing, and likely surpasses America in the former. With increased awareness in Washington of the dangers of falling behind on quantum, the Department of Defense is also under political pressure to accelerate quantum R&D and deployment in the military whenever possible.
Beijing’s appetite for technological supremacy broadly and its state-led, top-down approach to quantum development is another factor accelerating the global quantum race, and raising the stakes for the Western countries. And despite China’s acknowledged “innovation challenges,” there is no doubt that Chinese President Xi Jinping is taking quantum seriously—as part of his ambition to dominate “the main battlefield of international competition.”
The Chicken and The Egg
How safe are we in a world where a Cold War-style technological race is further fragmenting an already broken international system? This question will become more urgent as Trump moves to implement his transactional approach to foreign policy — this time with fewer constraints and more partners abroad to enable it. It won’t help that Russia and China are doubling down on their revisionist strategy, accelerating the breakdown of international cooperation.
In this volatile and unstable international environment, a zero-sum approach to quantum carries risks. And unfortunately, nations trapped in the prisoner’s dilemma are rushing to get ahead regardless of the long-term costs. Differing standards — or the lack thereof — and mistrust could lead to a fragmented global order in the critical technologies that are shaping the 21st century. This escalation cycle where nations prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability is self-perpetuating, and the more we learn about just how important quantum may be, the harder it becomes to escape the cycle.
Choucaier put it simply, “On one hand, we want to encourage the development of quantum information science, including on an international scale. But the challenge lies in the fact that once a country gains an advantage in quantum technologies, there’s no guarantee to a level playing field or that they use that advantage responsibly.”
At the beginning of this article, I asked a question that has been on my mind — and on the minds of many others — for a while. Whether quantum becomes the technology to give us a definite, final answer to the million-dollar question of what comes first — conflict or technology — is yet to be seen. But it’s a dangerous question to experiment with if we fail to place the necessary safeguards in place first.
